Windows 8 makes me cry

718 weeks ago

I'm not really just jumping to conclusions, I'm drawing on previous conversations we've had on IM or whatever. I think you vastly underestimate just how much the average PC user does nothing but Facebook and email with their PC. It's basically everybody. Microsoft targeting those people with an OS that makes doing those things simpler and easier makes perfect sense from a business standpoint. Microsoft is above all a business. They stopped being about doing cool things for the computing industry like 20 years ago, if that's what they were ever about. Probably not.

Also, Microsoft is not the only company going this route. They're playing catchup to Apple. The merging of the PC and mobile user experience is an industry-wide trend at the moment, and I think Microsoft would be making a major mistake to ignore it.

Zefyr Admin replied

718 weeks ago

Oh yeah: you should also be able to recognize text from me that is designed to piss you off by now. Shame on you :p

Kirisawa Senkei Full Events Access replied

718 weeks ago

The "quote" link isn't working for me, but hopefully this does:

According to Wikipedia, Facebook had 845 million registered users in December, which is around 12% of the world population. If that doesn't count as pretty much everybody that has a computer and internet access, I don't know what does.Zefyr

Not even close.
1: Worldwide internet usage is somewhere around 33% (2,267 million, as of December 2011). So the number of registered FB accounts is pretty close to 1/3 of the number of active internet users.
2: I think we both know that the number of people using FB is much less than the number of registered accounts. However, Poisoning the Well + Confirmation Bias + Backfire Effect: Well played, sir!

last edited 718 weeks ago by Kirisawa

Kirisawa Senkei Full Events Access replied

718 weeks ago

Oh yeah: you should also be able to recognize text from me that is designed to piss you off by now. Shame on you :pZefyr

That's why I went back to add the "trolling" preface line to that last post on the first page. I don't want to confuse anyone else with our old-lady-style bickering. ;)

Zefyr Admin replied

718 weeks ago

1: Worldwide internet usage is somewhere around 33% (2,267 million, as of December 2011). So the number of registered FB accounts is pretty close to 1/3 of the number of active internet users.Kirisawa

Hrm… I wonder what the percentage comes up to if you count other social networks in the "Facebook" value. I know that in some places like Brazil, Facebook is not the dominant social network. And I have no clue what's going on in China. They probably have some special thing over there. Also, piracy is rampant there, MS can't target that market directly.

So really what I want to know: what percentage of people on the internet over the age of 13 in the US is active on a social network, using that as an analog for markets that Microsoft is likely to target. It's got to be way higher than 1/3. I'd be shocked if it's less than 2/3, and surprised if it's less than 80%.

Kirisawa Senkei Full Events Access replied

718 weeks ago

I think 2/3 is a gross overestimation, considering that about 27% of that population is over 60. Although if you assume those people are out of the target market as well, and assume a percentage of age 19-59, with luxury / high tech purchasing power for home use, then maybe 2/3 is more realistic?

If we do include all social networks though, then we come back to [thing I removed from that last big post] needing integration for each form of social media as it increases in popularity. If expansion of that nature isn't built into the architecture, then it just wouldn't be possible; and if it is, I'm even more scared from a security perspective.

I was going to argue the significant number of users of social media without a PC, but they would be included in the target audience as long as they have high tech purchasing power. "You only used Twitter on your phone BEFORE, but NOW it's much easier to use it on your PC too!"

Kirisawa Senkei Full Events Access replied

718 weeks ago

So I mentioned this topic in passing once I got home last night, and it ended something like this:

Kiri: I wonder what the actual numbers are? That would be really cool to know.

Nifta: ... You realize I work in market research, right?

Kiri: Wait, you mean-

Nifta: Yeah, <here are those exact numbers>

I am a total dork. For the record: Of US internet users over the age of 18, FB has roughly 72% reach <? I forgot the actual term, but I know it's not "penetration" [though it should be]>.

Oddly enough, this is also the percentage of the US population that uses the internet at all. That coincidence makes me giggle. Assuming a US population of ~311.8 million, that's about 161.6 million FB users.

Too bad I can't get at that second really cool number I wanted, which was "what % of FB accounts are personal accounts" (ex. corporate accounts, 2nd/3rd/4th accounts of the same person, celebrity/fan/pet accounts owned by someone else).

last edited 718 weeks ago by Kirisawa

Nitefall Senkei Full Events Access replied

718 weeks ago

Kiri, you think too much. You make my head hurt, I feel bad for your's. lol

Kirisawa Senkei Full Events Access replied

718 weeks ago

That's what the caffeine is for! With the thinking, and the trolling, and the casting, and the pantsing, and the hording! Life just kinda runs that way!

I used to think in logic, then I learned to clear my mind (comes naturally to some people, harder than it sounds for others). After that I took computer science, and learned to think in code. Then I dove into psychology, and learned to think about thinking. While bouncing back and forth between those two, Zef happened. And Go… oh god, the Go. So now I think about arguing about coding a way of considering the logic to maneuver a position for the hurting and the stabbing and the oil leaking and the doo-ah.

Oooo crystals! SHINY! 8D

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